The 2020 NBA Draft is upon us, and fittingly, it looks like it’s going to be terrible. But let’s not let that stop us from doing what we've always one: participating in the annual ritual of comparison, projection, evaluation and speculation that heralds the arrival of the NBA’s newest players.
Over the years I’ve developed a tried-and-true method for evaluating NBA prospects:
See who the consensus top prospects are.
Watch a bunch of YouTube mixtapes and judge the players myself.
At no point during this process do I watch any college basketball, international basketball, or high school basketball. However, players’ reputations, mythologies, and public personas affect my evaluation of them. Players like Zion Williamson, Luka Doncic, John Wall, Anthony Randolph and Rodrigue Beaubois entered the draft with fascinating narratives already in progress.
This year’s draft class may not have the most promising reputation, but there are some compelling stories, and - as always - limitless possibility. In the spirit of upside, let’s begin at the top of the consensus rankings, though not my own. I’ll follow NBA.com’s Consensus Mock Draft through the lottery before revealing my rankings at the end.
LaMelo Ball: Let’s start with the obvious: LaMelo’s brother Lonzo has been, until very recently, terribly misused and underdeveloped. Lonzo has a rare combination of passing, defense, and rebounding. He also came into the league with one of the most busted jump shots ever seen and was forced to play off-ball alongside LeBron James. I love Lonzo, and believe he can be a great player if he continues to improve his jump shot and is given the chance to defend, rebound, and run the break with his singular brand of genius. I do not believe LaMelo will be great. I’m not even sure he’ll be good. While he may have more touch than Lonzo, his jumper is still undeniably ugly, and his shooting percentages are awful. He’s a great passer, but if he can’t shoot and is weak at the rim teams will stay home and let him chuck bricks. He’s a good rebounder, but his defense is an obvious weakness. What does this all add up to? I see a delusional Kyle Anderson, a flashier Evan Turner, or a terribly malnourished Tyreke Evans. Maybe I’m wrong. He is the consensus top pick after all. Let’s move on.
James Wiseman: A graceful seven-footer who we’ve barely seen play because the NCAA, that noted paragon of ethics, said he couldn't? Now we’re talking. I’ve watched about two minutes of meaningless decontextualized James Wiseman footage and I'm sold. Here’s why: athletically, he’s obviously huge, nimble, and nowhere near as strong as he's going to be. He’s got touch, he fights for position in the post, and he moves well on defense. His biggest problem on the court is avoiding hitting his head on the rim. He was the top prospect before his college season ended early. I see no reason to change that line of thinking. Anthony Davis put to rest the notion that big men have no place in today’s NBA.
Anthony Edwards: Anthony Edwards can sky, and he’s strong, but his game looks off. Something in his handle and his jumper don’t look right, and he’s shown no evidence he can contribute defensively or as a passer. I get strong Jonny Flynn meets Anthony Bennett vibes. If I were Chase Budinger and I were drafting a partner for doubles volleyball I might go with him, but I’d also be concerned about his touch.
Deni Avdija: Sure, I get it. People regret missing out on Luka. Avdija has good size, some craftiness, and a nice-looking shot. He’s also a surprisingly bad free throw shooter and is nowhere near the transcendent, obvious talent that Luka was coming out of Europe. He’s a fine late lottery pick most years.
Obi Toppin: The college purist’s choice. Definitely explosive, definitely talented, with undeniable energy. That said, if the Cavaliers pick him, they’ll have a trio of empty-calorie gunners for the ages with Collin Sexton and Darius Garland.
Tyrese Haliburton: If Obi Toppin is empty calories, Tyrese Haliburton is some weird-looking superfood. Unlike LaMelo Ball, his busted jumper goes in and he looks like an impact defender. He also wears short-shorts, which is promising, and has a usage rate around 20%, which is less so. I’d love for the Warriors to take him; he’ll shine brightest on a good team.
Killian Hayes: Enough is enough! Just because you’re a lefty doesn’t mean you’re Manu Ginobili. That said, he throws some bullets, has a decent looking stroke, handles well, and has the size and athleticism to succeed at the NBA level.
Onyeka Okongwu: This has the makings of a classic Knicks draft moment, by which I of course mean they are going to pass on Okongwu and regret it forever. I love what I see. He’s got bounce, he moves well, he plays hard, and there’s the possibility of so much more than he’s shown. The numbers love him, and lest we forget, defense wins championships. Worst case scenario you’ve got an elite scrapper. Best case you’ve got the next Bam Adebayo.
Isaac Okoro: Sure, he looks good. He also hasn’t done a lot. I’m not wild about him. I’m also not sure why he’s ranked so far below Anthony Edwards.
Patrick Williams: Ah, the allure of pure, uncut upside. Can he play? Draft him and find out! Everyone loves dunks, and the blocks and steals bode well for him on defense.
Devin Vassell: We’ve left the consensus top ten, and entered the late lottery of an underwhelming draft so naturally our next prospect is a talented shooter who plays great defense and can do a little bit of everything. I have to imagine he goes higher on draft day.
Aaron Nesmith: Now we’re really scraping the bottom of the barrel, with a 6-6 guard who shot 52% from 3. Doesn’t look to be the all-around player Vassell is, but hot damn, 52 percent?! Sure, it’s a small sample size, but watch him shoot. It’s a thing of beauty. Run him off screens and spot him up for the next decade and enjoy.
Saddiq Bey: Another good 3-and-D prospect, and further evidence that we have NOT entered the era of positionless basketball. Calling someone a wing or a 3-and-D guy instead of a SG or SF does not mean you’ve liberated them from the constraints of categorization. If anything, players today seem to be put into more circumscribed roles than ever. Saddiq Bey seems like a guy who can hoop. Someone is going to draft him and make him stand in a corner.
Kira Lewis Jr.: He’s quick! Tommy Tuberville is the new senator from Alabama! That's all I got.
There are many other noteworthy players in this draft - far too many for me to do even the most rudimentary research on. I’ll quickly mention a few players who stood out to me for one reason or another:
Cole Anthony: Gotta love a highly touted son of a pro who piled up bricks at an esteemed program. The numbers love him for some reason, and he looks a lot more compelling than many of these guys.
Cassius Winson: There’s always a decent chance the scrappy leader of a Michigan State team will prove everyone wrong and embarrass the league. There’s also the chance they’ll be the next Mateen Cleaves.
Jaden McDaniels: Is he the next extremely smooth and talented player to underachieve for one year at UW before blossoming in the NBA? Hearing the enthusiasm in Bill Walton’s voice while watching him drain 3’s and slither to the hoop has made me a believer.
Isaiah Stewart: Sticking with the UW theme, could he do for post-ups what Jon Brockman did for rebounding? Probably, seeing how little Jon Brockman accomplished in the pros.
Aleksej Pokusevski: This dude is a freak. I have absolutely zero faith in his ability to play in the NBA, but then again, height and shooting are two of the hardest things to teach.
RJ Hampton: He’s got Beaubois-esque bounce, but that didn’t really work out for Beaubois, so I’m not sure it’s going to work out here.
Josh Green and several dozen other boring 3-and-D wings: They’ll probably be fine. Who cares?
My final rankings:
James Wiseman
Onyeka Okongwu
Tyrese Haliburton
Killian Hayes
Devin Vassell
LaMelo Ball
Deni Avdija
Anthony Edwards
Patrick Williams
Jaden McDaniels
Aaron Nesmith
Isaac Okoro
Obi Toppin
Cassius Winston
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